Boomer’s Blog

A unit of Countrywide Financial Corp. has filed a foreclosure action against Ed McMahon, an ailing 85 year-old TV personality who has been trying to sell his expansive Beverly Hills home for the past two years.

In his heyday, McMahon, was the consummate late night TV sidekick who spent much of his career by original Tonight Show host Johnny Carson’s side. McMahon also hosted the Star Search variety show which foreshadowed American Idol’s incendiary popularity. Still, many remember him for putting Publishers Clearing House (PCH) on the map with his charismatic TV commercials where the Prize Patrol ambushes unsuspecting families with drive-by sweepstakes fortunes.

The Wall Street Journal reports that ReconTrust, an arm of Countrywide Financial, filed a default notice on a $4.8 million Countrywide loan backed by Mr. McMahon’s home in late February. Official documents show that, at the time of the foreclosure filing, McMahon had racked up $644,000 in overdue payments on that loan.

Public records also show that in February, McMahon had a separate home-equity debt with Countrywide of up to $300,000 tied to the same property. It has not yet been revealed whether Countrywide still owns McMahon’s home loan, or is pursuing the debt for real estate investors who may have acquired it.

McMahon first listed his expansive Beverly Hills estate in 2006 for $7.7 million. After a few price drops in the interim, the property currently is listed with Christie’s Great Estates for $5.75 million.

Since breaking his neck in a bad fall on his possibly cursed property last year, McMahon has suffered through a lengthy recovery and has been unable to work. A spokesman for the healing celebrity says McMahon has been in fruitful negotiations with the lender and is optimistic that he’ll be able to work out a deal to avoid foreclosure.

Technologies offering free on-line property information are changing the real estate business and quietly building a mighty force that is poised to obliterate the National Association of Realtors‘ (NAR) virtual monopoly on property information and decimate the concept of the 6 percent agent commission.

Until recently, it was challenging to operate in the residential real estate market without access to the NAR’s multiple-listing service (MLS) because only realtors really knew what homes in any given area were selling for. Realtors who shared the information generally expected a return for their data sharing and professional services, usually in the form of a 6 percent commission on subsequent property transactions. But times are rapidly changing.

The Holy Grail: Data Accuracy
Soon, an estimate for just about any home’s value will be available online from sources such as Zillow.com. Many already are. But are the data accurate? A 2007 Wall Street Journal analysis of 1,000 home sales shows that Zillow’s “Zestimates” often are accurate, often within a few percentage points of the actual price paid. But when Zillow is off, the disparity can be dramatic.

Zillow.com officials say that constant refinements to their system make the data more accurate today than ever. Changes to the back-end of the system and enhancements like adding a process whereby owners can update their property information in Zillow.com’s system all work to maximize on-target data reporting.

Objectivity Fuels Credibility
Still, services such as those offered by Zillow.com are not yet perfect. Zillow’s valuation protocol is most accurate for mid-price homes in areas where there is high property turnover; it is less effective in neighborhoods where people seldom move. But the time may come when Zillow is seen as more reliable than human brokers, Money magazine reports.

Often, brokers and owners have an incentive to inflate estimates to win prospective clients and are not always tuned in to market changes. Data from sources such as Zillow.com are far more objective and are becoming more widely used by consumers, brokers and by major media media outlets to establish important benchmarks in the real estate market.

In other words, if everyone uses the data, the provider can become a significant force in the market. For example, financial news giant Bloomberg recently reported that U.S. home values dropped 7.7 percent in the first quarter to the lowest in almost three years, based on estimates by Zillow.com. The article says this is the largest decline in 12 years of data compiled by the Seattle-based online data provider. When the media major players cite a particular data provider as a source, it lends great credibility to the quality of the information outfits like Zillow.com provide.

All Aboard the Gravy Train
Zillow.com launched its Web site in 2006 to provide homeowners, real estate agents and potential buyers with value assessments called “zestimates” for single-family homes, co- operative apartments and condominiums. The company has since become a real estate powerhouse, recently expanding its operation to provide mortgage market information services. In the past couple of years, competitors have sprung up for a taste of the gravy snatched from the plates of brokers and others working from the tradtional MLS system data model.

According to Online Media Daily, in December 2007, San Francisco-based Trulia.com managed to edge out Zillow.com, AOL Real Estate and HouseValues in terms of unique visitors. The site nearly tripled its audience from the previous year, growing from 579,000 unique visitors to 1.6 million. Trulia recently sweetened the user experience by offering not only listing info and photos, but access to view the property via Google’s popular Street View Map option. Google Street View where it’s available, gives users an interactive, mobile, street-level view of properties and neighborhoods.

John Vogel, who teaches economics and real estate at Dartmouth, says that the democratization of real estate data imperils the future off the 6 percent real estate commission. Real estate brokers will retain a role as marketers, especially in tough markets. But, Money magazine says, like stock brokers before them, they’ll find that as they lose their traditional monopoly on information, they just can’t command their traditional price.

Below is a list of five top real estate valuation Web sites (My personal favorites are Trulia and Zillow).

• AOL Real Estate
• HomeGain.com
• RealEstateABC.com
• Trulia.com
• Zillow.com

Can’t sell that flip? Consider becoming a landlord to generate cash flow while you hold on for better prices.

The Wall Street Journal reports that 2.2 million vacant homes were for sale in Q1, up from 2.1 million in Q4, and about one million more than was considered “normal” before economic crises permeated the market.

The U.S. homeowner vacancy rate, which tracks the number of vacant homes for sale, jumped to 2.9 percent in Q1, up from 2.8 percent in Q4 2007. According to recent U.S. Census Bureau housing data, the vacancy rate has risen significantly since the housing bubble morphed into the mortgage meltdown. Between 1995 and 2005, the rate sat between 1.5 percent and 2 percent.

Families today are no more likely to own their homes now than they were in 2002, despite widespread opportunities, such as subprime mortgages, that were purported to boost home ownership among borrowers with poor credit scores. Related Census data show that the seasonally adjusted share of homes occupied by owners rose to 67.9 percent Q1, up from 67.7 percent in Q4 – this level peaked at 69.3 percent in 2004. These numbers and the credit crunch fuel more speculation that home prices will continue to drop well into Q4 2008.

While the dream of home ownership has become an Ambien-fueled nightmare for many Americans, data show that droves of families who’ve managed to claw their way out of bad mortgage deals are looking for places to live.

There currently are 4.1 million vacant homes for rent, and the rental vacancy rate edged up to to 10.1 percent in Q1. The rental vacancy rate clearly is on the rise since Q4’s rate of 9.6 percent was recorded by the Census. Analysts say however, that the growing inventory of vacant rentals should keep rent prices relatively stable, and help to temper inflation.

For those looking into becoming a landlord, the Boston Globe offers six rules from the trenches that could save you from financial — and emotional ruin.

Curious about the housing market’s journey from boom to bust? Here are some news and tools to help you research the finer points of how it all happened and what markets in the United States have been the hardest hit.

• CNN and Fortune magazine have teamed up for a special series of TV reports and an expanded on-line report titled “Inside the Mortgage Crisis.” This Web special edition contains all the latest news on the mortgage industry including clickable maps of beleaguered markets, news, interviews and video footage.

• Though access may require registration, the Wall Street Journal hosts a bevy of maps that offer real estate investors a bird’s-eye view of how current economic woes are affecting markets throughout the United States. Here, a pull-down menu offers color-coded maps tracking where high interest rates were offered most, mortgage delinquency rates, post-boom price changes, and more.

This time next week, I’ll be in Atlanta, meeting up with my friend Lou Brown for “Millionaire Deal Maker,” another one of his awesome seminars. You may know Lou as an expert in the structure of the deal, but I’ve known him as a friend  for years. Actually, we met at one of his events, where he confided in me his impressive story about how he achieved success in this business.

Lou started buying property in 1977, when he was a teenager! Since then, he’s invested in single-family homes, apartments, hotels, developed subdivisions and built and renovated homes and apartments. He’s bought and sold in many ways, including auctions. The wealth of knowledge he’s shared with me over the years has really broadened my horizons about how a truly creative entrepreneur can secure financing and structure dream deals.

I’m not the only one who is impressed with Lou. He’s been quoted by “The Wall Street Journal” and “Smart Money” Magazine, among others, as an expert in real estate investing, managing and financing. He also has taught me a lot about how to give back to my community. Lou is past-president and a lifetime member of the Georgia Real Estate Investor Association (GREIA). He also is the founding president of the National Real Estate Investors Association (NREIA), which works with local investor groups nationwide.

I’ll soon be sharing what I learn in Atlanta, and keep you posted on all the best events as we head into a busy season of buying, selling and training to make the most out of the next great deal. Although I’ll attend his events anywhere he holds him, I had an especially good time on one of his famous cruises … that some may consider infamous.

If any of you have attended any trainings that stick out in your mind, please share your stories.