Boomer’s Blog

A huge, largely underestimated and under-reported glut of foreclosed, real estate owned (REO) inventory is clogging up the U.S. housing market, and the majority of doesn’t seem to appear on the MLS. The size of this “ghost inventory” is unknown, but its effects cold be chilling for cash-strapped lenders. What does this mean to real estate investors? Tons of cash if you know how to buy right and stay on top of the real estate marketing curve.

Inventories, Foreclosure Filings Skyrocket
In November, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported an 11.2-month inventory of existing homes on the market, up from a 10.3-month in October. But now it seems those sky-high numbers statistics could continue rising dramatically, which is likely to lower home sales prices, and slow overall U.S. economic recovery.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 2.3 million U.S. properties in 2008, and an 81 percent hike from 2007, and a whopping 225 percent surge from 2006, according to RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released in mid-January.

These inventory and foreclosure statistics are interesting enough to raise a few eyebrows among hungry real estate investors. But when RealtyTrac compared NAR’s MLS data with its foreclosure data they raised more than a few eyebrows: they raised the question of whether a vast “ghost inventory” is lingering in REO lender clutches, and if so, is it poised to deliver another hard blow to the U.S. housing market?

Piecing together the “Ghost Inventory” Puzzle
RealtyTrac recently examined the MLS listings in four states, including California, Maryland, Florida and Wisconsin, and found that they contained only a third of the foreclosures it has in its database. Research and analysis by Mr. Mortgage points to an even more widespread problem. There are several possible reasons for this apparent disparity and none of them are good for lenders.

At a minimum, preliminary data suggest that only one-third of foreclosures are reaching the MLS database, and it’s entirely likely that this is a conservative estimate.

The value of REO property on the books of FDIC-insured banks at the end of the Q3  rose 21 percent from the previous quarter, to $23 billion. That total represents a 134 percent increase over last year, according to the latest quarterly report released by the FDIC.

Since there is no reliable way to track these data and existing systems are likely overwhelmed by the high volumes of foreclosures working their way through the system, all we have at this point are estimates as to the number of houses that are haunting  REO’s “ghost” or “shadow”  inventory, as it also is coming to be known.

According to CNNMoney, current U.S. housing market declines are likely to sharpen dramatically as a result of this situation because so many foreclosed homes are lingering in bank possession without representation in the MLS.  Regardless of how the government and lenders approach the problem, averting a tidal wave of foreclosures appears to be impossible.

What’s the Holdup?
What could explain this Grand Canyon-sized gap between the numbers of foreclosures that are recorded vs. the number that has appeared on the MLS? Here are a few explanations that immediately come to mind:

• Inventories of foreclosed and REO properties has grown so fast and in such high volumes that the banks can’t keep up with processing demands, which could delay the MLS listing process.
• Federal and state government attempts to slow the foreclosure tide and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s holiday moratoria on foreclosures are contributing to MLS listing delays for many of these properties.
• Because it’s taking longer to process the foreclosures, the REO properties are getting vandalized or suffering natural damage as a result of what’s becoming long-term neglect. Getting these properties on the MLS is further delayed while banks grapple with making necessary repairs.
• It’s also possible that lenders are lagging in submitting these distressed property listings to the MLS in hopes of deferring their losses as long as possible in hopes of protecting their institutions from insolubility.
• Many of these REO properties might already be listed as short sales.

What does the Ghost Inventory Mean to Your Business?
REO housing inventories are expected to shatter more records in 2009 as more of them hit the market and banks continue their struggle to stay afloat. These market conditions are ideal for real estate investors who deploy sound purchasing strategies and stay on top of the game with effective real estate marketing.

For a quick  video detailing how and why this “ghost inventory” is likely to unleash a mighty wave of foreclosure inventory on the U.S. Housing market, check out this Mr. Mortgage interview on CNBC’s Faber Report.

SalesTeamLive Tows Your REI Bottom Line
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If you’re in California, you really should discover ForeclosureRadar.com. This new site for tracking foreclosures is top-notch for real estate investors, realtors, and mortgage brokers, alike.

ForeclosureRadar’s Sean O’Toole happens to be a good friend of mine. He’s lightning-sharp, an expert at buying at auction, and his site for tracking foreclosures is second to none. Soon, Sean says his service will branch out to other states. If you register now, they’ll send you an update when they get more markets online.

We’re thrilled by the buzz ForeclosureRadar.com has been generating both in the industry and in the mainstream media. Sean’s accomplishments here include feature interviews with CBS News and the ever-popular “60 Minutes” TV news magazine

“The foreclosure process has been shrouded in darkness for too long. Get-rich-quick gurus and disreputable list peddlers have thrived in this darkness, manipulating consumers and real estate professionals alike. People who needed help were hard pressed to get it,” Sean says. “We’re ending this.” Bravo Sean.

To accomplish this lofty goal, Sean’s started with top-notch data that covers properties in every phase of the foreclosure process, including pre-foreclosures, auction properties and those which are real estate owned(REO).

Armed with these tools, investors and othersno longer have to scrape together scattered information to make informed decisions. If you want to check out the goods, a free trial is available with registration, or, for a quick glance at what the site has to offer, you can check out ForeclosureRadar’s media reports on the California market.

Another great feature of the ForeclosureRadar site is a free online community forum where participants in the foreclosure market can interact more efficiently. Consumers find Realtors specializing in foreclosures; Investors source service providers; Lenders connect with brokers to move properties more efficiently. “It’s all there, out in the open, ” Sean says. And that’s just a good thing for real estate investors, it also can be part of the healing process for distressed homeowners.

Sean’s Blog addresses a number of the more intimate realities of the foreclosure process as well as some of the business solutions that could save the day for investors and homeowners alike.

“Foreclosure is an unpleasant process,” Sean says.”The are human beings behind the numbers. Those who want to get rich quick should seek other venues. It’s time to clear the air of hype.” And Sean knows what he’s talking about. Sean nearly lost his first home to foreclosure 20 years ago. With the help of a local Realtor, he was able to negotiate a short sale with the lender and move on.

Years later, after a building for himself asuccessful career as a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and executive, Sean returned to the foreclosure market — as an investor. It did not take him long to realize that the foreclosure data and tools he was forced to rely upon were sorely lacking. In purchasing more than 150 foreclosures, it also became clear to Sean that the marketplace itself was deeply fragmented in ways that harmed both consumers and real estate service providers.

This inspired Sean to assemble a development “dream team” from his days in technology and get to work. And for real estate entrepreneurs, Sean’s work on Foreclosure Radar emerges as a true work of art.

Amid the U.S. foreclosure epidemic, Habitat for Humanity has been capitalizing on the low prices of real estate owned properties (REO), and foreclosed properties to advance its mission to provide affordable housing in communities throughout the nation. Sound ironic? Maybe so, but it’s also a practical strategy for foreclosure-blighted areas to get their homes occupied as soon as possible.

By rehabbing these low-income properties, the non-profit is helping build stronger communities and property values in many of the real estate markets that need it most. They’re also helping to stave off some of the dangers that come with properties that seem to be abandoned in the long term.

When Builders and REO Lenders Walk Away
The Associated Press reports that an increasing number of Habitat for Humanity chapters have buying REO and foreclosed properties at bargain basement prices, organizing legions of volunteers for massive rehabbing projects and then selling the homes at affordable prices to families in need.

When rehabbing isn’t a practical option (and many of us know that sometimes it isn’t) the houses are torn down to make way for new dwellings. In some real estate markets, Habitat for Humanity is even buying large subdivision tracts left over from the real estate bubble burst. Many developers are simply walking away from developments they can’t afford to complete, Habitat officials say.

Although the circumstances that have enabled Habitat for Humanity to acquire massive amounts of U.S. real estate are lamentable, placing low-income families into affordable housing is a better use of existing resources than allowing properties to remain vacant or go to real estate investors. Habitat officials warn that vacant homes can drive up crime and reduce nearby property values.

REO, Foreclosed Homes and Neighborhood Blight
Not only are vacant properties an invitation for crime, In many U.S. housing markets, the untended, vacant properties have led to health hazards and neighborhood blight. Unkempt swimming pools have provided prime breeding grounds for the West Nile Virus. Properties left dirty or unsecure also are vulnerable to vermin that spread disease such as: rats, mice, roaches and others.

The extent to which Habitat for Humanity affiliates participate in local foreclosure and REO investing depends to some extent on how much money they have to spend. Here are some project highlights:

Habitat for Humanity Projects in Four Metro Markets:

1. In Fort Worth, Texas, the local Habitat chapter is negotiating to buy part of a 160-lot subdivision
   that a developer seems to have abandoned. If their negotiations go according to plan, they’ll develop 50 of the remaining 100 vacant lots in the area. Fort Worth Habitat officials say that prices for comparable lots has dropped 30 percent to 40 percent since the height of the real estate boom.
2. In Dallas,Texas, another Habitat affiliate has picked up about 150 lots for half of the original price. Developers in the city’s south end are abandoning inexpensive lots and costly construction projects in favor of greener looking pastures in the city’s north end leaving many real estate investment opportunities wide open, officials say.
3. The Habitat affiliate in Phoenix, Ariz., is wrapping up negotiations to complete a 20-home development abandoned by a company that went bankrupt and couldn’t complete its development. In addition, Habitat officials say they’re working deals on 14 metro-area unfinished lots for less than half of their original list price.
4. In Milwaukee, Wisc., the city is taking action against the ill effects of foreclosure in its metro communities. The city is buying multiple condo units in one large complex with a high concentration of foreclosures, and then selling them to Habitat for about $5,000 each. When Habitat for Humanity volunteer rehabs on the units are complete, they’ll be sold to clients for about $25,000.

As a real estate investor, what do you think of the city intervening with foreclosed and REO properties and working with a third party such as the non-profit Habitat for Humanity? Do you see advantages or disadvantages from yor position as a real estate investor?