Boomer’s Blog

The trend heading into the holidays seems to be one of growing unemployment and a rising tide of homeowners drowning in mortgage debt.

An Ironic wist on a Familiar Story
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October report finds that unemployment last month soared to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent, as 240,000 jobs were slashed. Yet the Orange County Register’s Mortgage Insider, Matthew Padilla has made an interesting observation. He sifted through the data to report that in September,  352,200 workers were making a living in the mortgage business — that’s up from 349,300 in August.

Negative Equity Plagues Homeowners
But the recent real estate statistics that really capture the real estate investor’s eye come from According to First American CoreLogic, 2.1 million mortgages are within 5 percentage points of being in a negative-equity position and 7.5 million mortgaged properties are carrying more mortgage debt than they’re worth. That means that nearly 20 percent of properties with mortgages are beneath the powerful waves the economic undertow.

Rising Percentage of Underwater Mortgages in the States
See how the mortgages currently in negative equity break down among the states listed below (Note: percentages have been rounded off and the states are listed in descending order starting with the highest reported rate of negative equity.):

1. Nevada: 48%
2. Michigan: 39%
3. Arizona: 29%
4. Florida: 29%
5. California:  27%
6. Georgia: 23%
7. Ohio: 22%
8. Colorado: 18%
9. Arkansas: 16%
10. New Hampshire: 17%
11. Texas: 17%
12. Virginia: 16%
13. Tennessee: 15%
14. Kansas: 15%
15. Iowa: 15%
16. Alaska: 14%
17. Wisconsin: 14%
18. Nebraska: 13%
19. Kentucky: 13%
20. Missouri: 13%
21. Minnesota: 12%
22. Maryland: 12%
23. Rhode Island: 12%
24. Louisiana: 11%
25. Idaho: 11%
26. Utah: 11%
27. Oklahoma: 10%
28. South Carolina: 10%
29. Indiana: 10%
30. North Carolina: 10%
31. Illinois: 10%
32. Delaware: 10%
33. Washington D.C.: 10%
34. Massachusetts: 10%
35. New Jersey: 9%
36. New Mexico: 8%
37. Washington: 8 %
38. Oregon: 8%
39. Alabama: 7%
40. Connecticut: 7%
41. Montana: 7%
42. Pennsylvania: 6%
43. Hawaii:  6%
44. New York:  4%

Source: First American CoreLogic

Notes: Data were unavailable for Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. These data are based on 42 million properties that had a first or second mortgage, accounting for at least  80 percent of U.S. mortgages.

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Long-term mortgage Interest rates rose this week to their highest levels since March, likely triggered by rising inflation, high gas prices, and dwindling consumer confidence. At the same time, home values are shrinking in every region of the United States. Can we call this a recession yet?

Mortgage Rates Take a Hike
Currently, the national average interest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages is up to 6.08 percent this week, up from 5.98 percent last week, This time last year, mortgage financing company Freddie Mac says it was 6.42 percent.

Shouldn’t this be moving the market? Not necessarily, says Freddie. As mortgage rates rise, home values continue to fall. More folks likely will be watching this selling season than the World Series.

Q1 Home Values Fizzle in Most States, All Regions
The value of U.S. homes fell 10.4 percent in the first quarter, says Freddie Mac, marking fueling the most dramatic annual dive since 1971. In the past year, Freddie’s Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index averaged 4.4 percent, the most remarkable decline in 39 years.

Freddie Mac data show that 46 states reported price drops in Q1, and 29 states measured drops over the same period last year. Only Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina and Wyoming reported price gains, however moderate, for Q1.

According to Freddie Mac’s numbers, based on the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index Classic Series, no region in the U.S. is totally immune to the price drops that sometimes look like economic chronic wasting disease. But depending on your real estate investment strategy, there are some bright spots if you look at the big picture. Again, the real estate markets that didn’t pump-up the real estate bubble, look much more stable these days.

Regional Housing Trends
Here are are some regional housing value numbers crunched in Freddie Mac’s latest report:

West South Central Division

• Includes: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas;
• Current values reported for Q1: down 0.5 percent (-1.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values rose 1.6 percent;
• Over the past five years, home values climbed 26.8 percent.

Middle Atlantic Division

• Includes: New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania;
• Current values reported for Q1: down 1.1 percent (-4.1 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 0.2 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 44.3 percent.

East South Central Division

• Includes: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee
• Current values reported for Q1: down 1.1 percent (-4.3 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values increased 0.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 26.6 percent.

East North Central Division

• Includes: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 1.5 percent (-5.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 3.8 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 9.2 percent.

Mountain Division

• Includes: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming;
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 1.5 percent (-5.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 3.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 44.0 percent.

West North Central Division

• Includes: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska and South Dakota
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.2 percent (-8.6 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 2.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 16.3 percent.

South Atlantic Division

• Includes: Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.6 percent (-10.1 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 4.4 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 37.8 percent.

New England Division

• Includes: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont;
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.9 percent (-11.0 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 4.0 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 22.2 percent.

Pacific Division

• Includes: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 6.9 percent (-24.8 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 12.4 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 40.1 percent.

Black gold is making real estate investment king in states that produce energy by fueling prices in dozens of local U.S. housing markets.

Today, the price of crude oil topped $135 per barrel, up from $65 this time last year, and experts are predicting that the price is likely to reach $200 before too long. While difficult for most of the world to swallow, these prices are producing a boom in some U.S. housing markets, while others languish in an ongoing struggle for economic survival.

Because soaring oil prices result in higher consumer costs for gas, energy bills and food, local economies in many housing markets still reeling from the foreclosure epidemic are suffering from lower tax revenues and other harsh realities. Once-thriving infrastructures appear to be fizzling out in many of the markets that saw the greatest gains during the housing boom.

Give and Take
At the same time, high fuel costs are driving hot housing markets in many energy-producing states. In these real estate markets, high gas prices are stimulating job growth, boosting personal income, contributing to a healthy tax base and rising demands for housing.

The Wall Street Journal reports that five states producing oil, gas and other fossil fuel commodities are beating April’s national unemployment rate of 5 percent and personal income growth of 5.9 percent by significant margins. Here are the numbers from some of the hottest energy producing states for the sake of comparison to the overall national average:

Montana

• Unemployment rate: 3.8 percent;
• Personal income growth: 6.6 percent.

North Dakota

• Unemployment rate: 3.1 percent;
• Personal income growth: 6.4 percent.

Oklahoma

• Unemployment rate: 3.2 percent;
• Personal income growth: 7.0 percent.

Texas

• Unemployment rate: 4.1 percent;
• Personal income growth: 7.4 percent.

Wyoming

• Unemployment rate: 2.6 percent;
• Personal income growth: 6.8 percent.

Since many of these states never experienced the real estate price surges that came with the housing boom, they’re not being ravaged hit by the bust. This may factor significantly into long-term real estate investment stability as the overall U.S. economy struggles to overcome recession, lost revenues and other related economic pangs.

Shelter from Recession’s Storm
Because energy producing states currently are boasting more robust tax revenues, public infrastructures are thriving: schools, hospitals parks and law enforcement are well-funded, roads are better maintained and additional funding is available for the improvements that contribute greatly to property value increases.

These factors all work together to improve the quality-of-life assets that attract qualified buyers for home relocation and up-sizing. When such conditions are in place, they also stimulate the service industry and retail sectors, prompting them to expand their presence, poised to join the party.

Nature Takes her Course
In energy booming states, especially those that smartly diversified their economies during former energy market declines to minimize their economic dependance on oil prices, these indicators offer real estate entrepreneurs broader investment options than many other markets. Currently, they’re generating demand for many different types of housing: rental properties, low-income housing, single family homes and retirement communities, to name a few. When favorable market conditions spark demand, the nature of capitalism takes its course.

Boom and Bust Economy
In the past, real estate markets in energy-producing states were vulnerable to the boom and bust economic cycle. When energy prices would surge, local economies would quickly grow, only to be subjected to painful busts when energy prices inevitably declined. Today however, analysts are saying that we may never again see dramatic declines in oil prices. So as long as the supplies hold out, and local economies strike a healthy balance, these markets look like promising investment opportunities. Savvy real estate entrepreneurs may want to take a look at what some of the up-and-coming markets in energy producing states have to offer their portfolios.