Boomer’s Blog

A huge, largely underestimated and under-reported glut of foreclosed, real estate owned (REO) inventory is clogging up the U.S. housing market, and the majority of doesn’t seem to appear on the MLS. The size of this “ghost inventory” is unknown, but its effects cold be chilling for cash-strapped lenders. What does this mean to real estate investors? Tons of cash if you know how to buy right and stay on top of the real estate marketing curve.

Inventories, Foreclosure Filings Skyrocket
In November, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported an 11.2-month inventory of existing homes on the market, up from a 10.3-month in October. But now it seems those sky-high numbers statistics could continue rising dramatically, which is likely to lower home sales prices, and slow overall U.S. economic recovery.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 2.3 million U.S. properties in 2008, and an 81 percent hike from 2007, and a whopping 225 percent surge from 2006, according to RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released in mid-January.

These inventory and foreclosure statistics are interesting enough to raise a few eyebrows among hungry real estate investors. But when RealtyTrac compared NAR’s MLS data with its foreclosure data they raised more than a few eyebrows: they raised the question of whether a vast “ghost inventory” is lingering in REO lender clutches, and if so, is it poised to deliver another hard blow to the U.S. housing market?

Piecing together the “Ghost Inventory” Puzzle
RealtyTrac recently examined the MLS listings in four states, including California, Maryland, Florida and Wisconsin, and found that they contained only a third of the foreclosures it has in its database. Research and analysis by Mr. Mortgage points to an even more widespread problem. There are several possible reasons for this apparent disparity and none of them are good for lenders.

At a minimum, preliminary data suggest that only one-third of foreclosures are reaching the MLS database, and it’s entirely likely that this is a conservative estimate.

The value of REO property on the books of FDIC-insured banks at the end of the Q3  rose 21 percent from the previous quarter, to $23 billion. That total represents a 134 percent increase over last year, according to the latest quarterly report released by the FDIC.

Since there is no reliable way to track these data and existing systems are likely overwhelmed by the high volumes of foreclosures working their way through the system, all we have at this point are estimates as to the number of houses that are haunting  REO’s “ghost” or “shadow”  inventory, as it also is coming to be known.

According to CNNMoney, current U.S. housing market declines are likely to sharpen dramatically as a result of this situation because so many foreclosed homes are lingering in bank possession without representation in the MLS.  Regardless of how the government and lenders approach the problem, averting a tidal wave of foreclosures appears to be impossible.

What’s the Holdup?
What could explain this Grand Canyon-sized gap between the numbers of foreclosures that are recorded vs. the number that has appeared on the MLS? Here are a few explanations that immediately come to mind:

• Inventories of foreclosed and REO properties has grown so fast and in such high volumes that the banks can’t keep up with processing demands, which could delay the MLS listing process.
• Federal and state government attempts to slow the foreclosure tide and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s holiday moratoria on foreclosures are contributing to MLS listing delays for many of these properties.
• Because it’s taking longer to process the foreclosures, the REO properties are getting vandalized or suffering natural damage as a result of what’s becoming long-term neglect. Getting these properties on the MLS is further delayed while banks grapple with making necessary repairs.
• It’s also possible that lenders are lagging in submitting these distressed property listings to the MLS in hopes of deferring their losses as long as possible in hopes of protecting their institutions from insolubility.
• Many of these REO properties might already be listed as short sales.

What does the Ghost Inventory Mean to Your Business?
REO housing inventories are expected to shatter more records in 2009 as more of them hit the market and banks continue their struggle to stay afloat. These market conditions are ideal for real estate investors who deploy sound purchasing strategies and stay on top of the game with effective real estate marketing.

For a quick  video detailing how and why this “ghost inventory” is likely to unleash a mighty wave of foreclosure inventory on the U.S. Housing market, check out this Mr. Mortgage interview on CNBC’s Faber Report.

SalesTeamLive Tows Your REI Bottom Line
As housing markets evolve, so must your marketing strategies. If you want your business to thrive, especially in a challenging economic landscape, you’ve got to set your priorities. If marketing doesn’t top your list, you’re cramping your growth and potential for profits in this business.
If you’re looking for cost-effective strategies that are designed to conquer today’s markets and build a stronger future for this business, SalesTeamLive’s Done-for-You marketing campaigns deliver results you can bank on.

To learn how you can leverage quick-fire market developments such as the REO “Ghost Inventory” to generate tons of cash for your real estate investing business, check out SalesTeamLive or call us directly at 1-877-STL1 (that’s 877-438-7851).

Since government-sponsored financial services giants Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac announced a foreclosure moratorium through the holidays in November, government efforts to stem the foreclosure tide have heated up in hard-hit states such as California, Connecticut and Florida.

It is likely that state and federal lawmakers — and other officials convening in the New Year also are gearing up to take action to slow the foreclosure process. New and emerging policies in this trend are likely to give beleaguered homeowners some space to breathe — and RE investors a vast open field of profit opportunity.

Join the Revolution: Short Sale Manifesto 2.0
Ohio-based Strategic Real Estate Coaches Josh Cantwell and Greg Clement see green pastures ahead for pre-foreclosure and short sale investors who are keen on building stronger real estate businesses and cashing  in on recent market changes. Moving into the holiday season, they’re offering investors a steady stream of absolutely free, timely information, tools and resources you need to adapt to changing market conditions in this motivated seller market.

Timing Isn’t Everything
More than 10 million homes currently are over-leveraged with mortgage debt and have no equity, Josh says: If we can take advantage of these opportunities as real estate agents or investors, we can capitalize on these market conditions — big time.

Update Your Strategies, Tap Warming Markets
There are some common-sense tactics you can use which are incredibly cost-effective to deploy in your business, such as ramping up your personal and real estate marketing efforts that can have a dramatic impact on your bottom line. Some require more effort than others, but the focus should stay fixed on preparing your business to thrive in pre-foreclosure or whatever markets you choose.

It’s clearly no secret that property values have dropped significantly in the past two years. Today’s market conditions for short sale and pre-foreclosures are evolving, Josh says. And changing times call for different strategies.

Refine and Define your Strategies
Earlier this year, Josh updated several elements of his original “Short Sale Manifesto” to reflect what real estate investors need to succeed in today’s challenging and increasingly more competitive pre-foreclosure and short sale markets.

Josh updated this book because he is serious about helping his students to deploy only the most cutting-edge strategies and techniques in tapping these markets and the “Short Sale Manifesto 2.0” leaves no stone unturned in its  pages,

Josh breaks all the mission critical aspects of short saling down into small, manageable tasks that emphasizs networking and skill-building.  Central to his Manifesto are key techniques that, when implemented properly, will strengthen your professional support system and build your business.

Like Candy for Short Sale Investors
While Josh gives great guidance on the steps you need to take to make the short sale deals happen — and keep a constant flow of new deals in your pipeline, he also tells you all about the pitfalls you need to avoid.

If you only have 10 minutes to spend reading this ebook, check out the details Josh provides regarding the Top 9 Mistakes even the best real estate investors make and how you can avoid them. These investment blunders include:

1. Paying too much for a property,
2. Underestimating the cost of repairs,
3. Neglecting to stage property,
4. Failure to build a workable buyers list,
5. Failure to secure private money,
6. Failure to plan multiple exit strategies,
7. Failure to focus on revenue producing activities,
8. Lack of a coherent system to organize your business, and my favorite,
9. Failure to implement an effective and consistent marketing strategy.

Some of these errors may be all too familiar, while some may be new to you, but in all cases, Josh offers clear strategies to protect your business and build wealth by keeping your wits — and your money — about you while you’re investing in short sale real estate.

Free Videos and Info Clarify your Short Sale Mission
Visit Josh at his Strategic Real Estate Coach Web site and prepare yourself to be amazed by the high-quality information he is willing to show you this month absolutely free of charge, all in celebration of the season. While you’re there, be sure to catch the free videos. They make great companion pieces to the “Short Sale Manifesto 2.0.”

Stay tuned to this blog for the latest on SREC’s Special Giveaway Bonanza slated to kick off Tuesday, Dec. 9.

As the number of U.S. home foreclosures topped one million this month, cities in the states hardest hit by foreclosure: Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada were named by Fortune magazine as the hottest markets for real estate investment. In addition, emerging reports of real estate market overhang are not surprising. Especially in light of the mid-decade building frenzy in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada that was spurred by gravity-defiant home prices and easy money loans.

During the Boom
Back then CNNMoney says, dramatic price surges were fueled by investors who used risky mortgages to cash in on hot market activity, Today, these four states combined hold one-third of the nation’s foreclosures, with nearly 400,000 homes hanging in the balance.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association Q1 report, Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada combined represent:

• 62 percent of all foreclosures started on prime ARM loans, and 84 percent of the increase in prime ARM foreclosures;
• 49 percent of all of the subprime ARM foreclosures started in the country during the Q1, and were responsible for 93 percent of the increase in subprime ARM foreclosures
• 29 percent of prime fixed-rate foreclosures and 60 percent of the increase in those foreclosures; and
• 25 percent of subprime fixed-rate foreclosures and 53 percent of the increase in those foreclosures.

Fortune’s Five Hottest REI Markets
Especially now that the chips appear to be down, it seems that everyone wants in on the real estate game, and Fortune magazine has named five cities as ideal for real estate investing. These markets are generally the hardest hit in the foreclosure epidemic:

1. Miami
   According to the S&P/Case Shiller index, prices and sales here appear to be circling the drain. Miami house prices have dropped a whopping 21.7 percent in the past year, and dwindling median condo prices. Miami condo and home sales have plunged 40 over last year, and market activity has slowed dramatically. Fortune recommends that the following markets are ripe for real estate investment: Aventura, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach and Coral Gables
2. Tampa
   The Case-Shiller index reports that in the past year, real estate values have fallen 17.5 percent. Still, Fortune predicts a rebound is in the forecast for Tampa because of its strong local economy and other market forces. Currently, the median home price is $222,000, down from $275,000 last year, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts 20 percent or greater appreciation value over the next five years. Today, home prices are 50 percent lower than they were during the boom. Those surges may be attributed primarily to speculators flipping houses for quick profits, Fortune says. When the deals began to recede and the investors started started pulling out in 2006, the prices began their free fall. Now, Fortune says, this market is ripe for high-end real estate investment: Gulf-front luxury condos in Clearwater or St. Petersburg, are down from the $1 million a few years ago, to around $600,000 today.
3. Las Vegas
   Here, the real estate bubble swelled with annual price increases of up to 50 percent, making for today’s dramatic price drops and hot bargains. According to the Case-Shiller index, Las Vegas is the hardest-hit locale nationally, with prices dropping nearly 23 percent in one year, and one in 44 homes hitting foreclosure Q1 alone. In this market, with the third-highest rate of foreclosure in the U.S., Fortune predicts that the sun-drenched climate, proximity to pleasure, and glut of luxury homes, combined with the absence of state income tax will attract droves of retirees — and a speedy market recovery. Here, Fortune recommends investing in new construction in outlying areas like Summerlin and Providence, or in high-rise condos, especially in light of their 10 percent price drops since last year.
4. San Diego
   Prices here have plunged nearly 10 percent and foreclosures have surged in the past year, according to Moody’s Economy.com. Despite the fact that the Council for Community and Economic Research deems San Diego County’s cost of living 47 percent higher than the national average, the area’s natural beauty and beach-front locations give it the strength to conquer adversity and recover quickly from the mortgage crisis. Again, Fortune’s forecast is growth in the high-end property appreciation, as these properties have been the slowest to move in the inventory glut.
5. Phoenix
   Although Moody’s Economy.com shows its real estate values plummeting by 8 percent over the past year, and RealtyTrac reports its foreclosure rate has tripled since 2007, Phoenix, like Las Vegas will continue to attract retirees. Here, Fortune says, the planned communities that surround the metropolitan area offer hidden bargains. Also, amenities such as golf, shopping and luxurious recreation centers add additional value for the retirement crowd. Fortune suggests that here, areas like Sun City Anthem, Palm Valley, and Avondale are great places to find housing bargains that’ll likely offer healthy returns as the markets continue their recovery.