Boomer’s Blog

The trend heading into the holidays seems to be one of growing unemployment and a rising tide of homeowners drowning in mortgage debt.

An Ironic wist on a Familiar Story
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October report finds that unemployment last month soared to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent, as 240,000 jobs were slashed. Yet the Orange County Register’s Mortgage Insider, Matthew Padilla has made an interesting observation. He sifted through the data to report that in September,  352,200 workers were making a living in the mortgage business — that’s up from 349,300 in August.

Negative Equity Plagues Homeowners
But the recent real estate statistics that really capture the real estate investor’s eye come from  First American CoreLogic: 2.1 million mortgages are within 5 percentage points of being in a negative-equity position and 7.5 million mortgaged properties are carrying more mortgage debt than they’re worth. That means that nearly 20 percent of properties with mortgages have plunged into the powerful waves the economic undertow.

Rising Percentage of Underwater Mortgages in the States
See how the mortgages currently in negative equity break down among the states listed below (Note: percentages have been rounded off and the states are listed in descending order starting with the highest reported rate of negative equity.):

1. Nevada: 48%
2. Michigan: 39%
3. Arizona: 29%
4. Florida: 29%
5. California:  27%
6. Georgia: 23%
7. Ohio: 22%
8. Colorado: 18%
9. Arkansas: 16%
10. New Hampshire: 17%
11. Texas: 17%
12. Virginia: 16%
13. Tennessee: 15%
14. Kansas: 15%
15. Iowa: 15%
16. Alaska: 14%
17. Wisconsin: 14%
18. Nebraska: 13%
19. Kentucky: 13%
20. Missouri: 13%
21. Minnesota: 12%
22. Maryland: 12%
23. Rhode Island: 12%
24. Louisiana: 11%
25. Idaho: 11%
26. Utah: 11%
27. Oklahoma: 10%
28. South Carolina: 10%
29. Indiana: 10%
30. North Carolina: 10%
31. Illinois: 10%
32. Delaware: 10%
33. Washington D.C.: 10%
34. Massachusetts: 10%
35. New Jersey: 9%
36. New Mexico: 8%
37. Washington: 8 %
38. Oregon: 8%
39. Alabama: 7%
40. Connecticut: 7%
41. Montana: 7%
42. Pennsylvania: 6%
43. Hawaii:  6%
44. New York:  4%

Source: First American CoreLogic

Notes: Data were unavailable for Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming. These data are based on 42 million properties that had a first or second mortgage, accounting for at least  80 percent of U.S. mortgages.

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Long-term mortgage Interest rates rose this week to their highest levels since March, likely triggered by rising inflation, high gas prices, and dwindling consumer confidence. At the same time, home values are shrinking in every region of the United States. Can we call this a recession yet?

Mortgage Rates Take a Hike
Currently, the national average interest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages is up to 6.08 percent this week, up from 5.98 percent last week, This time last year, mortgage financing company Freddie Mac says it was 6.42 percent.

Shouldn’t this be moving the market? Not necessarily, says Freddie. As mortgage rates rise, home values continue to fall. More folks likely will be watching this selling season than the World Series.

Q1 Home Values Fizzle in Most States, All Regions
The value of U.S. homes fell 10.4 percent in the first quarter, says Freddie Mac, marking fueling the most dramatic annual dive since 1971. In the past year, Freddie’s Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index averaged 4.4 percent, the most remarkable decline in 39 years.

Freddie Mac data show that 46 states reported price drops in Q1, and 29 states measured drops over the same period last year. Only Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina and Wyoming reported price gains, however moderate, for Q1.

According to Freddie Mac’s numbers, based on the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index Classic Series, no region in the U.S. is totally immune to the price drops that sometimes look like economic chronic wasting disease. But depending on your real estate investment strategy, there are some bright spots if you look at the big picture. Again, the real estate markets that didn’t pump-up the real estate bubble, look much more stable these days.

Regional Housing Trends
Here are are some regional housing value numbers crunched in Freddie Mac’s latest report:

West South Central Division

• Includes: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas;
• Current values reported for Q1: down 0.5 percent (-1.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values rose 1.6 percent;
• Over the past five years, home values climbed 26.8 percent.

Middle Atlantic Division

• Includes: New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania;
• Current values reported for Q1: down 1.1 percent (-4.1 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 0.2 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 44.3 percent.

East South Central Division

• Includes: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee
• Current values reported for Q1: down 1.1 percent (-4.3 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values increased 0.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 26.6 percent.

East North Central Division

• Includes: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 1.5 percent (-5.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 3.8 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 9.2 percent.

Mountain Division

• Includes: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming;
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 1.5 percent (-5.9 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 3.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 44.0 percent.

West North Central Division

• Includes: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska and South Dakota
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.2 percent (-8.6 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 2.3 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 16.3 percent.

South Atlantic Division

• Includes: Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.6 percent (-10.1 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 4.4 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 37.8 percent.

New England Division

• Includes: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont;
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 2.9 percent (-11.0 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 4.0 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 22.2 percent.

Pacific Division

• Includes: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington
• Current values reported for Q1: dropped 6.9 percent (-24.8 percent, annualized);
• Over the past year: home values dropped 12.4 percent;
• Over the past five years: home values climbed 40.1 percent.

An escalating trend of state legislatures regulating real estate investors who work as foreclosure consultants to help homeowners stave off foreclosure is taking many in our industry by storm.

Distressed Properties and Investors
In attempts to protect desperate homeowners, lawmakers have mandated consumer protections and fines for investors who violate the law. In many instances, these ongoing attempts to restrict real estate investors’ business practices are redefining the distressed property playing field .

With a growing number of real estate entrepreneurs using the Internet and other electronic resources to invest in markets outside of their home states, those who are using short sale, pre-foreclosure, and similar types of transaction strategies to invest in distressed properties should be vigilant in monitoring changes in state laws.

States Collecting Fines and Penalties
Last year, the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) reported that a dozen states had taken steps to actively regulate foreclosure transactions. These states include California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island.

This year, more states have either considered or passed new laws geared to protect the interests of distressed homeowners and  penalize real estate investors who fail to comply with the law. These laws impose greater regulation on investors than some of the earlier legislation enacted in other states.

Lawmakers in Oregon and Washington have expanded their regulatory scopes by passing comprehensive laws that regulate lending practices and place restrictions on  property transaction as well as the contract between  investors (or real estate agents) and the sellers.

More Regulation Ahead
According to the National Association of Responsible Home Rebuilders and Investors (NARHRI), a Washington D.C.-based lobbying group for residential real estate investors, recent scrutiny of the industry by lawmakers and other policymakers is setting the stage for broader regulation in the future.

Because many states have assembled task forces to scrutinize business practices surrounding foreclosure and predatory lending, NARHRI predicts that ongoing legislative efforts will continue to target real estate investors by increasing restrictions on foreclosure consultants and their multifaceted business practices – especially with regards to equity-based and lease-back to owner transactions.

Look for ongoing coverage of this important trend here. Has increased regulation affected your business? Are you interested in seeing more posts like this one? Please drop us a line and tell us what you think.